“There are no facts, only interpretations.” — Friedrich Nietzsche. (February economic notables)

Friedrich Nietzsche: Feb Economic Notables

Good evening,

Below is a concise 2-page report recapping economic data from the U.S., Europe, and Asia released in February. My next report will cover recent geopolitical events (Ukraine; droughts in South Asia, etc.)

Highlights:

Investors are interpreting worsening economic data in major economies as transitory and manageable. Upcoming months will be key in discerning the genuine trend.

The Bullish Interpretation:

  • U.S.: Strong internals reside within weak service and manufacturing data. Job market continues to heal and is close to exiting incubator,
  • Europe: Consolidating recovery ongoing.

The Bearish Disposition:

  • French divergence is cause for worry. Unemployment remains high and rising throughout periphery.
  • U.S.: The consumer picture remains clouded with a bearish hue. The housing market is slowing
  • China: External demand fleeting. Regressing economic data along with first domestic bond default since 1997 merits anxiety.

Thanks for your support,

Rodrigo

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Posted in Current Events | Tagged , , , ,

RCS Investments Macro Commentary and Asset Allocation February ’14

Macro Commentary and Asset AllocationGood morning,

Included is a synopsis of the macro landscape and possible future implications. This summary is then followed by a review of the investment backdrop (S&P500) and asset allocation considerations for the RCS Investments aggressive global macro portfolio.

Thank you for your support,

Rodrigo

Posted in Investment Strategy, Macro Outlook | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

RCS Investments Global Macro Fund; Aggressive Allocation; February ’14 Factsheet

Portfolio Management

When I published my outlook at the end of last year, I began a portfolio embracing the biases of the report.  I published my positions on the right hand border of this blog on 12/31/13 and have updated them periodically.  All history has been documented on my websites.  Included in the fact sheet below is the composition of my portfolio as of this past Friday along with performance metrics against appropriate benchmarks.  Commentary and coming adjustments to the portfolio will follow shortly.

Thanks for your support,

Rodrigo

Posted in Investment Strategy | Tagged

Who’s Naked? — January economic notables

Economic Notables JanuaryGood afternoon,

Below is a concise 2-page report recapping economic data from the U.S., Europe, and Asia released in January.

Highlights:

  • U.S.: Wintery mix warped economic data; but keep an eye on the consumer.
  • Europe: Draghi’s risky bet: Europe’s ongoing recovery will strengthen, fending off deflation.
  • Asia: China – Markets may deliver a “decisive” knockout, not role.  Japan – Abenomics is at a critical stage.

Thanks for your support,

Rodrigo

Posted in Current Events

Executive Summary of RCS Investments 2014 Global Macro Outlook

tree-cutting

Hello there,

I was told that having an executive summary of my extensive macro outlook, written at the turn of the year (check 2 posts below), would be more effective in communicating my thoughts on what lies ahead in the new year.  Below is the synopsis of my comprehensive report.

Thanks for your support,

Rodrigo

Posted in Macro Outlook | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

RCS Investments Global Macro Fund; Aggressive Allocation

Portfolio Management

When I published my outlook at the end of last year, I began a portfolio embracing the biases of the report.  I published my positions on the right hand border of this blog on 12/31/13.  However, I hadn’t published a piece detailing or recognizing this new project.  Below is a first stab at an account review that shows the positions in my portfolio as well as some preliminary performance figures against two benchmarks beginning 12/31/13:  50% IVV 50% AGG and 100% SPY.  My next update will include commentary and additional performance measures.

Thanks for your support,

Rodrigo

Posted in Investment Strategy | Tagged

RCS Investments 2014 Global Macro Outlook

Screen shot 2010-09-23 at 8.16.58 PM

Good evening,

I have completed my 2014 Global Macro Outlook.  In it, I summarize the state of the major global powers, followed by 7 trends I have identified as pivotal to focus on next year.

  1. What dynamics are key in Europe?
  2. Will military and political tensions increase in Asia?
  3. Is Japan on the right track or does trouble lie ahead?
  4. China: What lies in store for the global economy’s arcanum?
  5. Why should investors pay particular attention to the Fed next year?
  6. Fracking and its effects on the American economy.
  7. What role will re-shoring play in future economic growth for America?
Posted in Macro Outlook | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,