Below is a concise 2-page report recapping economic data from the U.S., Europe, and Asia released in February. My next report will cover recent geopolitical events (Ukraine; droughts in South Asia, etc.)
Investors are interpreting worsening economic data in major economies as transitory and manageable. Upcoming months will be key in discerning the genuine trend.
The Bullish Interpretation:
- U.S.: Strong internals reside within weak service and manufacturing data. Job market continues to heal and is close to exiting incubator,
- Europe: Consolidating recovery ongoing.
The Bearish Disposition:
- French divergence is cause for worry. Unemployment remains high and rising throughout periphery.
- U.S.: The consumer picture remains clouded with a bearish hue. The housing market is slowing
- China: External demand fleeting. Regressing economic data along with first domestic bond default since 1997 merits anxiety.
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