“There are no facts, only interpretations.” — Friedrich Nietzsche. (February economic notables)

Friedrich Nietzsche: Feb Economic Notables

Good evening,

Below is a concise 2-page report recapping economic data from the U.S., Europe, and Asia released in February. My next report will cover recent geopolitical events (Ukraine; droughts in South Asia, etc.)

Highlights:

Investors are interpreting worsening economic data in major economies as transitory and manageable. Upcoming months will be key in discerning the genuine trend.

The Bullish Interpretation:

  • U.S.: Strong internals reside within weak service and manufacturing data. Job market continues to heal and is close to exiting incubator,
  • Europe: Consolidating recovery ongoing.

The Bearish Disposition:

  • French divergence is cause for worry. Unemployment remains high and rising throughout periphery.
  • U.S.: The consumer picture remains clouded with a bearish hue. The housing market is slowing
  • China: External demand fleeting. Regressing economic data along with first domestic bond default since 1997 merits anxiety.

Thanks for your support,

Rodrigo

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