June Edition of “The Market Radar”

The “Market Radar” is the section below my “Current Sector Outlook” on the left hand side of the front page where I list the current headwinds/tailwinds that I believe are affecting financial markets.

First, a slight tweak in the setup. At the bottom of the radar, I changed the title “General” to “Events” to signal future US events that are already known, which may have an increasing effect on financial markets. With that being said onto the changes for this month…
—————————————————————————–

Now

Headwinds—

Greece/Europe Sovereign Debt Contagion(No Change)
• No Change

Stimulus Withdrawal (No Change)
• No Change

State and Local Gov’t Budget Squeeze (New Addition)
• Negative UK news has taken a back seat to Eurozone troubles and a general period of risk taking.

China/US Currency Confrontation (-1)
• Just before the G-20 meeting took place in Canada, China unpegged the Yuan from the dollar and has allowed it to strengthen ever since. Granted the increases haven’t been large, but they are indeed occurring. This will help in alleviating rising tensions between the US and China.

Iran/Israel (No Change)
• The news has quietly been getting worse.

Tailwinds—

Manufacturing Strength (No Change)
• No Change

Business Investment (No Change)
• No Change

Consumer Strength (No Change)
• No Change

Job Creation (No Change)
• No Change

+++++++++++++

Was

Headwinds—

Greece/PIIGS Sovereign Debt Escalation/Contagion

Stimulus Withdrawal

China/US Currency Confrontation

Financial Reform

UK Sovereign Debt Problems

Iran/Israel

Tailwinds—

Manufacturing Strength

Business Investment

Consumer Strength

Job Creation

———————–

Additions

State and Local Gov’t Budget Squeeze
• There are widespread reports regarding the constant troubles that state and local governments are experiencing in trying to balance their budgets. Unfortunately this will involve either increasing taxes or cutting spending (leading to less spending power). These widespread job cuts are beginning to act as a headwind toward economic growth.

Subtractions

UK Sovereign Debt Problems
• It seems the UK may be on the path towards fiscal soundness. Due to this, I am dropping them from my headwinds on my “market radar”, however, things may quickly change. The danger still lurks that if we have a global double-dip, the UK may fall into a debt trap where austerity would cause a drop in revenues which would decrease the probability that the government could pay the debt back anyways.

Financial Reform
• While many people aren’t happy with how financial reform ended up, in the end, it is an uncertainty that has been lifted. May people believe that banks might have gotten off light once again.

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