Update III to “On The Market Radar” (Version 2.0 Layout)

The “Market Radar” is the section below my “Current Sector Outlook” on the left hand side of the front page where I list the current headwinds/tailwinds that I believe are affecting financial markets.

Below are the changes to the Market Radar
—————————————————————————–

Now

Headwinds—

Greece/Europe Sovereign Debt Contagion(No Change)
• No Change

Stimulus Withdrawal (+2)
• Weaker job reports, slowing growth in manufacturing, and the stall in consumption growth are signs of a weakening economy. We have politicians, including the president, asking for more stimulus.

China/US Currency Confrontation (+2)
• This factor has heated up in the past few days. The Chinese have basically said to the US, “Buzz off, our exchange rate policy is our business not yours”. Given that we have politicians making comments that border on threatening, this factor has begun to get high on my radar.

Financial Reform (-1)
• Though still important, financial reform went down a spot. While still being debated in Congress, markets have a general idea of what to expect and any surprise factor has been reduced.

UK Sovereign Debt Problems (-3)
• Negative UK news has taken a back seat to Eurozone troubles and a general period of risk taking.

Iran/Israel (No Change)
• While not providing headlines, what’s going on beneath the surface still remains active.

Tailwinds—

Manufacturing Strength (No Change)
• Manufacturing remains the little engine that could, continues on strong

Business Investment (No Change)
• Recent trends in Business point to strength in this area of the economy.

Consumer Strength (+1)
• Jumped over “Job Creation” because the disappointment has really come from the job market in the past month. However, there have been reports of flattish spending for the past two months, thus this factor is weakening too.

Job Creation (-1)
• Versus expectations, job gains have been modest at best. The effects of weak job creation have reduced this factor’s influence

+++++++++++++

Was

Headwinds—

Greece/PIIGS Sovereign Debt Escalation/Contagion

UK Sovereign Debt Problems

Financial Reform

Stimulus Withdrawal

China/US Currency Confrontation

Iran/Israel

Tailwinds—

Manufacturing Strength

Business Investment

Job Creation

Stock Market (Wealth Effect)

Consumer Strength

———————–

Additions

None

Subtractions

Stock Market (Wealth Effect)
• Eliminated due to dropping stock market affecting psyche = confident spending

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