Upcoming Economic Indicators

ISCS Goldman Store Sales:  Initial reports point to a good reading in this indicator as consumers finally make it out after the snowstorms and retailers initiate deep discounts. 

Consumer Confidence: Should come in better due to the holiday spirit similar to better readings from the U of M Consumer Confidence and ABC Consumer Confidence surveys.

MBA Purchase Applications:  This has been a disappointment and is the underlying cause of this whole crisis.  Can we really have a sustainable recovery if housing is still struggling which would keep the banks from lending?   

ISM Mfg Index:  Manufacturing should continue to show expansion.  It has been a mixed picture lately though leading indicators show continued strength through Q1 2010.  

Motor Vehicle Sales: Will Car sales continue to show support now that the Cash for Clunkers is over?  Thus far they have but stay at very low levels and have not shown a strong increase.

ISM Non-Manufacturing: Will we see 2 straight negative readings in this indicator?  Remember, this is the bulk of the economy, not the manufacturing survey.

Chain Store Sales: Should show good results due to easy comparisons to last year. 

Jobs Report:  Could we see a positive number in this indicator.  If we do, the media and the administration will surely make a big deal and for good reason.  Job growth is essential for us to exit this downturn.  I believe we won’t, but whether I’m wrong or not doesn’t really matter at this point.  Eventually we will see positive growth if not this month then most likely next month.  What matters is if job growth returns in a strong fashion.  I believe we will not see strong growth for most of 2010 as demand has been permanently destroyed due to a fake demand that existed though out most of the decade due to credit.  In times of deleveraging this demand doesn’t exist.    

Consumer Credit:  Should continue to show contraction as deleveraging continues in earnest.  

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