Job Gains For December?

Although it’s a short term event, it has been making the rounds on the Street (Bloomberg, CMBC, etc) that we could see an improvement into positive territory on Jobs.
Thus far for December we’ve had questions over whether seasonal factors played a role in the Jobs report for November (Last November we had a similar jump —we’ll soon find out in the revision) and a negative surprise coming from the Empire Manufacturing report (Employment index flipped back into negative territory). So not a good start off to the month, we need to see how the Philly Fed, Chicago, and other manufacturing hubs do. Just my guess, I think it’s going to be a negative surprise for the month.
Besides, you can’t be too optimistic if the “Job Creation machine” that is the small business sector is in such terrible shape and there are no intentions on the part of small business owners to expand employment. What I’m getting at is even if we do get positive numbers in the future, job growth is likely to be meager and not the V-shaped recovery projections. The consumer cannot spend, so small businesses will not hire. I believe that this is true even with a tax credit to entice businesses to hire because laborers continue to cost money even after the tax credit runs its course. The employment of labor is a bet on the longer term success of the recovery and no amount of stimulus (unless it’s perpetual) is going to change it.

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