Although it’s a short term event, it has been making the rounds on the Street (Bloomberg, CMBC, etc) that we could see an improvement into positive territory on Jobs.
Thus far for December we’ve had questions over whether seasonal factors played a role in the Jobs report for November (Last November we had a similar jump —we’ll soon find out in the revision) and a negative surprise coming from the Empire Manufacturing report (Employment index flipped back into negative territory). So not a good start off to the month, we need to see how the Philly Fed, Chicago, and other manufacturing hubs do. Just my guess, I think it’s going to be a negative surprise for the month.
Besides, you can’t be too optimistic if the “Job Creation machine” that is the small business sector is in such terrible shape and there are no intentions on the part of small business owners to expand employment. What I’m getting at is even if we do get positive numbers in the future, job growth is likely to be meager and not the V-shaped recovery projections. The consumer cannot spend, so small businesses will not hire. I believe that this is true even with a tax credit to entice businesses to hire because laborers continue to cost money even after the tax credit runs its course. The employment of labor is a bet on the longer term success of the recovery and no amount of stimulus (unless it’s perpetual) is going to change it.
Upcoming Key Macro Events
- China: Leadership transition to 19th Congress begins October 18, 2017
- EU summit to decide whether to advance in Brexit talks October 19, 2017 – October 20, 2017
- Czech general election October 20, 2017 On watch: victory for Andrej Babis
- (TENT): Target date for completion of budget w/inx for tax reform October 20, 2017
- Japanese snap election October 22, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy October 31, 2017 – November 1, 2017
- China's Singles Day November 11, 2017
- Deadline for tariff decision on solar manufacturing November 13, 2017
- Deadline to determine status of Canadian Softwood tariffs announced no later than Nov 14 November 14, 2017
- NAFTA negotiations in Mexico begin November 17, 2017
- (TENT) Debt ceiling deadline December 8, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* December 12, 2017 – December 13, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- Gov't funding deadline (shutdown if not passed) December 15, 2017
- (TENT) Italian National Elections January 1, 2018
- Chair Yellen's term ends (if not reappointed) February 3, 2018
- Fed: Yellen's term expires February 3, 2018
- Fed: Lockhart (Centrist to slighly dovish) retires? February 28, 2018
- D-day anniversary June 4, 2018 at 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm 1944
- Fed: Fischer's term expires June 12, 2018
- Austrian general election due by Sept 2018 September 1, 2018
- (TENT) Xiangshan military forum September 30, 2018
- Draghi term at ECB ends October 31, 2019 ECB ends
- Term of Jean-Claude Juncker, Head the European commission, ends October 31, 2019