Although it’s a short term event, it has been making the rounds on the Street (Bloomberg, CMBC, etc) that we could see an improvement into positive territory on Jobs.
Thus far for December we’ve had questions over whether seasonal factors played a role in the Jobs report for November (Last November we had a similar jump —we’ll soon find out in the revision) and a negative surprise coming from the Empire Manufacturing report (Employment index flipped back into negative territory). So not a good start off to the month, we need to see how the Philly Fed, Chicago, and other manufacturing hubs do. Just my guess, I think it’s going to be a negative surprise for the month.
Besides, you can’t be too optimistic if the “Job Creation machine” that is the small business sector is in such terrible shape and there are no intentions on the part of small business owners to expand employment. What I’m getting at is even if we do get positive numbers in the future, job growth is likely to be meager and not the V-shaped recovery projections. The consumer cannot spend, so small businesses will not hire. I believe that this is true even with a tax credit to entice businesses to hire because laborers continue to cost money even after the tax credit runs its course. The employment of labor is a bet on the longer term success of the recovery and no amount of stimulus (unless it’s perpetual) is going to change it.
Upcoming Key Macro Events
- Target for UK Triggering Article 50 March 29, 2017
- Senate Intelligence Committee Public Hearing March 30, 2017
- (TENT) Tarullo, Fed Governor set to resign April 5, 2017
- NATO foreign ministers meet April 5, 2017
- (TENT) Trump meets with Jinping at Mar-a-Lago April 6, 2017 Mar-a-Lago
- Confirmation vote for Neil Gorsuch April 7, 2017
- Eurogroup Summit (Greek bailout resolved?) April 7, 2017
- Target date to have AHCA passed the Senate April 7, 2017 at 5:00 pm – 6:00 pm
- Tillerson meets G7 foreign ministers in Italy April 10, 2017 Italy
- Target date for approval of ACA from both Houses April 14, 2017
- US: Budget resolution technically due. April 15, 2017
- (TENT): G7 Foreign Ministers meet in Tuscany April 15, 2017 Tuscany
- (TENT): Duterte visits Moscow (April or May) April 15, 2017
- Turkish Constitutional Referendum (Erdogan enhanced powers) April 16, 2017
- French Presidential election (1st round) April 23, 2017
- Spending bill deadline April 28, 2017 Republicans and Democrats agreed in late 2015 on a budget deal to increase some spending for two years to fund the government and avoid a shutdown and debt default. However Congress still needs to come up with a spending bill within those parameters by April 28
- Treasury Semiannual report on on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies April 28, 2017
- EU summit to discuss Brexit April 29, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy May 2, 2017 – May 3, 2017
- French presidential election (run off) May 6, 2017
- (TENT): G7 finance ministers meet in Puglia May 15, 2017 Puglia
- OPEC meeting in Vienna May 25, 2017 Vienna
- 43rd G7 Summit in Sicily, Italy May 25, 2017
- (TENT) Article 50 negotiations to begin June 1, 2017 Mrs. May’s letter will pave the way for Britain to leave by March 2019
- D-day anniversary June 4, 2017 at 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm 1944
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* June 13, 2017 – June 14, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- (TENT): Deadline for Greek debt payment (IMF review) July 1, 2017
- TENT Thaad deployed in South Korea?? July 1, 2017 South Korea??
- G20 Summit in Germany July 7, 2017 – July 8, 2017 Do Trump and Putin meet?
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy July 25, 2017 – July 26, 2017
- (TENT) Xiangshan military forum August 31, 2017
- (TENT) Catalan Referendum for independence August 31, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* September 19, 2017 – September 20, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- German Bundestag elections September 24, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy October 31, 2017 – November 1, 2017
- China's Singles Day November 11, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* December 12, 2017 – December 13, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- (TENT) Italian National Elections January 1, 2018
- Chair Yellen's term ends (if not reappointed) February 3, 2018
- Fed: Yellen's term expires February 3, 2018
- Fed: Lockhart (Centrist to slighly dovish) retires? February 28, 2018
- Fed: Fischer's term expires June 12, 2018
- Austrian general election due by Sept 2018 September 1, 2018