Although it’s a short term event, it has been making the rounds on the Street (Bloomberg, CMBC, etc) that we could see an improvement into positive territory on Jobs.
Thus far for December we’ve had questions over whether seasonal factors played a role in the Jobs report for November (Last November we had a similar jump —we’ll soon find out in the revision) and a negative surprise coming from the Empire Manufacturing report (Employment index flipped back into negative territory). So not a good start off to the month, we need to see how the Philly Fed, Chicago, and other manufacturing hubs do. Just my guess, I think it’s going to be a negative surprise for the month.
Besides, you can’t be too optimistic if the “Job Creation machine” that is the small business sector is in such terrible shape and there are no intentions on the part of small business owners to expand employment. What I’m getting at is even if we do get positive numbers in the future, job growth is likely to be meager and not the V-shaped recovery projections. The consumer cannot spend, so small businesses will not hire. I believe that this is true even with a tax credit to entice businesses to hire because laborers continue to cost money even after the tax credit runs its course. The employment of labor is a bet on the longer term success of the recovery and no amount of stimulus (unless it’s perpetual) is going to change it.
Upcoming Key Macro Events
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy July 25, 2017 – July 26, 2017
- Brazil's lower house to decide on Temer's trial before Supreme Court (on 1 corruption charge) August 2, 2017
- Last Congressional Business day before amended August Recess August 11, 2017
- NAFTA negotiations begin. August 17, 2017
- TENT: Decision to proceed on suit regarding legality of Obamacare Gov't Subsidies August 21, 2017
- (TENT) Xiangshan military forum August 31, 2017
- (TENT) Catalan Referendum for independence August 31, 2017
- ECB monetary policy meeting September 7, 2017 – September 8, 2017 Expectations are for announcement winding down of stimulus.
- Deadline to determine status of Canadian Softwood tariffs announced on June 26 September 7, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* September 19, 2017 – September 20, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- German Bundestag elections September 24, 2017
- Preliminary duty ruling due on Boeing vs. Bombardier September 25, 2017
- Soft deadline for firm contours of Tax reform September 29, 2017
- (TENT) U.S. Gov't Spending Bill due September 30, 2017
- (TENT): EU Summit (end of Phase 1 of Brexit talks: soft deadline) October 1, 2017
- In Spain, Catalonia Referendum October 1, 2017 Spain, Catalonia Referendum
- CBO estimates US Gov't runs out of cash Early to mid-October October 2, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy October 31, 2017 – November 1, 2017
- China's Singles Day November 11, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* December 12, 2017 – December 13, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- (TENT) Italian National Elections January 1, 2018
- Chair Yellen's term ends (if not reappointed) February 3, 2018
- Fed: Yellen's term expires February 3, 2018
- Fed: Lockhart (Centrist to slighly dovish) retires? February 28, 2018
- D-day anniversary June 4, 2018 at 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm 1944
- Fed: Fischer's term expires June 12, 2018
- Austrian general election due by Sept 2018 September 1, 2018
- Draghi term at ECB ends October 31, 2019 ECB ends
- Term of Jean-Claude Juncker, Head the European commission, ends October 31, 2019