Retail sales number was gangbusters and was not expected from my viewpoint. But when an actual good number comes out these days, it alway comes out with a fly in the ointment (why can’t we get any “clean” good news?). The fly this time is the fact that the sample from which they derive the number has completely changed! It’s one of the first things you see on the report. In other words, this is not an apples to apples comparison from the prior months. Also, the fact that shopping organizations as well as polls pointed otherwise the whole month goes against this one report.
Here, Here, Here and Here
But well everyone is joyous over the “great” news…. I’m not buying it though. Let’s see December and January to confirm this new-found growth.
To not seem just focused on the bad news, consumer confidence also showed a rise that was higher than expected. It is cause for relief but I won’t go as far as this saving the holiday season. Unfortunately, this metric is STILL stuck in recessionary territory. To put it in perspective, today’s 73.4 is still lower than the lowest reading in the last recession, and in the face of massive stimulus…. just food for though.
On another note,
Mr Volker is finally coming out to light on what is actually plaguing our economy. Instead of wasting billions of dollars trying to make an unworkable system of consumption work, we should devote more resources to fixing the structure of the economy (elimination of debt, recognizing losses in the banking system instead of “extend & pretend”, and stop penalizing hard working Americans who followed financial prudence for a long time by saving). Sadly no country can have an economy that is made up of 75% consumption. All that does is create massive debt…kinda how the US economy looks right now. It’s common sense folks that’s all it is. You don’t need graphs and genius mathematicians to figure out if something just doesn’t make common sense.
Upcoming Key Macro Events
- (TENT) Article 50 negotiations to begin June 1, 2017 Mrs. May’s letter will pave the way for Britain to leave by March 2019
- Election for State of Mexico June 4, 2017
- D-day anniversary June 4, 2017 at 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm 1944
- Deadline for U.S. Mexican sugar dispute June 5, 2017
- Brazilian Electoral Court rules on Dilma-Temer ticket June 6, 2017
- UK general election June 8, 2017
- 1st Round French Parliament vote June 11, 2017
- Phillippines Independence Day June 12, 2017 Does Rodrigo Duterte visit one of the disputed South China Sea islands, Pag-asa, to celebrate?
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* June 13, 2017 – June 14, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- 2nd Round French Parliament vote June 18, 2017
- Brexit talks begin? June 19, 2017
- Georgia's 6th District special runoff election June 20, 2017
- Deadline for notification of participation in Obamacare exchanges in 2018 June 21, 2017 Obamacare exchanges in 2018
- TENT: U.S. Commerce Department Trade deficit report June 30, 2017
- TENT: Deadline for National Security review on core industries June 30, 2017 Ross, the US commerce secretary, promised to wrap up the special investigation by the end of June.
- TENT Thaad deployed in South Korea?? July 1, 2017 South Korea??
- (TENT): Deadline for Greek debt payment (IMF review) July 1, 2017
- G20 Summit in Germany July 7, 2017 – July 8, 2017 Do Trump and Putin meet?
- TENT: 100-day trade investigation China/U.S. due July 20, 2017 During their visit at Mar-a-lago, Chinese officials instigated a “100-day plan” on trade between it and the U.S. to include “way-stations of accomplishment.”
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy July 25, 2017 – July 26, 2017
- Last Congressional Business day before August Recess July 28, 2017
- TENT: Decision to proceed on suit regarding legality of Obamacare Gov't Subsidies August 21, 2017
- (TENT) Catalan Referendum for independence August 31, 2017
- (TENT) Xiangshan military forum August 31, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* September 19, 2017 – September 20, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- German Bundestag elections September 24, 2017
- (TENT) U.S. Gov't Spending Bill due September 30, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy October 31, 2017 – November 1, 2017
- China's Singles Day November 11, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* December 12, 2017 – December 13, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- (TENT) Italian National Elections January 1, 2018
- Fed: Yellen's term expires February 3, 2018
- Chair Yellen's term ends (if not reappointed) February 3, 2018
- Fed: Lockhart (Centrist to slighly dovish) retires? February 28, 2018
- Fed: Fischer's term expires June 12, 2018
- Austrian general election due by Sept 2018 September 1, 2018