Retail sales number was gangbusters and was not expected from my viewpoint. But when an actual good number comes out these days, it alway comes out with a fly in the ointment (why can’t we get any “clean” good news?). The fly this time is the fact that the sample from which they derive the number has completely changed! It’s one of the first things you see on the report. In other words, this is not an apples to apples comparison from the prior months. Also, the fact that shopping organizations as well as polls pointed otherwise the whole month goes against this one report.
Here, Here, Here and Here
But well everyone is joyous over the “great” news…. I’m not buying it though. Let’s see December and January to confirm this new-found growth.
To not seem just focused on the bad news, consumer confidence also showed a rise that was higher than expected. It is cause for relief but I won’t go as far as this saving the holiday season. Unfortunately, this metric is STILL stuck in recessionary territory. To put it in perspective, today’s 73.4 is still lower than the lowest reading in the last recession, and in the face of massive stimulus…. just food for though.
On another note,
Mr Volker is finally coming out to light on what is actually plaguing our economy. Instead of wasting billions of dollars trying to make an unworkable system of consumption work, we should devote more resources to fixing the structure of the economy (elimination of debt, recognizing losses in the banking system instead of “extend & pretend”, and stop penalizing hard working Americans who followed financial prudence for a long time by saving). Sadly no country can have an economy that is made up of 75% consumption. All that does is create massive debt…kinda how the US economy looks right now. It’s common sense folks that’s all it is. You don’t need graphs and genius mathematicians to figure out if something just doesn’t make common sense.
Upcoming Key Macro Events
- CDU/CSU/SPD decision on formal negotiations January 21, 2018
- 6th round of NAFTA negotiations in Montreal, Canada January 23, 2018 – January 28, 2018
- Brazilian Court decides on Lula's election eligability January 24, 2018
- ECB monetary policy meeting January 25, 2018
- State of the Union Address January 30, 2018
- FOMC/Fed monetary policy decision January 31, 2018
- Fed: Yellen's term expires February 3, 2018
- Chair Yellen's term ends (if not reappointed) February 3, 2018
- Winter Olympics @ in Pyeongchang County, South Korea February 9, 2018 – February 25, 2018
- Mexico: PRI to formally nominate its Presidential candidate February 18, 2018
- Brazil: Lower House votes on SS reform February 19, 2018 – February 23, 2018
- Extraordinary summit in Brussels February 23, 2018 If no Brexit deal is reached in December 2017, then this summit marks the next best chance to come with a breakthrough.
- Fed: Lockhart (Centrist to slighly dovish) retires? February 28, 2018
- U.S. Debt Ceiling deadline February 28, 2018
- Italian election March 4, 2018
- Italian Parliamentary Term ends March 15, 2018 Elections must be held no later than 20 May 2018, that is to say no later than the last Sunday of the seventy days after the natural expiration of the current five-year parliamentary term -- Wikipedia
- Mexico: Presidential campaigning begins March 30, 2018
- NAFTA negotiations "soft" deadline March 30, 2018
- Hungarian Parliamentary elections April 8, 2018
- Treasury's Currency Report April 13, 2018
- (TENT) Italian National Elections May 20, 2018 Voters will elect the 630 members of the Chamber of Deputies and the 315 elective members of the Senate of the Republic for the 18th Parliament. -- Wikipedia
- D-day anniversary June 4, 2018 at 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm 1944
- Fed: Fischer's term expires June 12, 2018
- Mexican Presidential Election (1 round) July 1, 2018
- Austrian general election due by Sept 2018 September 1, 2018
- (TENT) Xiangshan military forum September 30, 2018
- Brazil Presidential election October 7, 2018
- China's Singles Day November 11, 2018
- UK official departs EU March 29, 2019
- Term of Jean-Claude Juncker, Head the European commission, ends October 31, 2019
- Draghi term at ECB ends October 31, 2019 ECB ends