Retail sales number was gangbusters and was not expected from my viewpoint. But when an actual good number comes out these days, it alway comes out with a fly in the ointment (why can’t we get any “clean” good news?). The fly this time is the fact that the sample from which they derive the number has completely changed! It’s one of the first things you see on the report. In other words, this is not an apples to apples comparison from the prior months. Also, the fact that shopping organizations as well as polls pointed otherwise the whole month goes against this one report.
Here, Here, Here and Here
But well everyone is joyous over the “great” news…. I’m not buying it though. Let’s see December and January to confirm this new-found growth.
To not seem just focused on the bad news, consumer confidence also showed a rise that was higher than expected. It is cause for relief but I won’t go as far as this saving the holiday season. Unfortunately, this metric is STILL stuck in recessionary territory. To put it in perspective, today’s 73.4 is still lower than the lowest reading in the last recession, and in the face of massive stimulus…. just food for though.
On another note,
Mr Volker is finally coming out to light on what is actually plaguing our economy. Instead of wasting billions of dollars trying to make an unworkable system of consumption work, we should devote more resources to fixing the structure of the economy (elimination of debt, recognizing losses in the banking system instead of “extend & pretend”, and stop penalizing hard working Americans who followed financial prudence for a long time by saving). Sadly no country can have an economy that is made up of 75% consumption. All that does is create massive debt…kinda how the US economy looks right now. It’s common sense folks that’s all it is. You don’t need graphs and genius mathematicians to figure out if something just doesn’t make common sense.
Upcoming Key Macro Events
- China: Leadership transition to 19th Congress begins October 18, 2017
- EU summit to decide whether to advance in Brexit talks October 19, 2017 – October 20, 2017
- Czech general election October 20, 2017 On watch: victory for Andrej Babis
- (TENT): Target date for completion of budget w/inx for tax reform October 20, 2017
- Japanese snap election October 22, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy October 31, 2017 – November 1, 2017
- China's Singles Day November 11, 2017
- Deadline for tariff decision on solar manufacturing November 13, 2017
- Deadline to determine status of Canadian Softwood tariffs announced no later than Nov 14 November 14, 2017
- NAFTA negotiations in Mexico begin November 17, 2017
- (TENT) Debt ceiling deadline December 8, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* December 12, 2017 – December 13, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- Gov't funding deadline (shutdown if not passed) December 15, 2017
- (TENT) Italian National Elections January 1, 2018
- Chair Yellen's term ends (if not reappointed) February 3, 2018
- Fed: Yellen's term expires February 3, 2018
- Fed: Lockhart (Centrist to slighly dovish) retires? February 28, 2018
- D-day anniversary June 4, 2018 at 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm 1944
- Fed: Fischer's term expires June 12, 2018
- Austrian general election due by Sept 2018 September 1, 2018
- (TENT) Xiangshan military forum September 30, 2018
- Draghi term at ECB ends October 31, 2019 ECB ends
- Term of Jean-Claude Juncker, Head the European commission, ends October 31, 2019