Retail sales number was gangbusters and was not expected from my viewpoint. But when an actual good number comes out these days, it alway comes out with a fly in the ointment (why can’t we get any “clean” good news?). The fly this time is the fact that the sample from which they derive the number has completely changed! It’s one of the first things you see on the report. In other words, this is not an apples to apples comparison from the prior months. Also, the fact that shopping organizations as well as polls pointed otherwise the whole month goes against this one report.
Here, Here, Here and Here
But well everyone is joyous over the “great” news…. I’m not buying it though. Let’s see December and January to confirm this new-found growth.
To not seem just focused on the bad news, consumer confidence also showed a rise that was higher than expected. It is cause for relief but I won’t go as far as this saving the holiday season. Unfortunately, this metric is STILL stuck in recessionary territory. To put it in perspective, today’s 73.4 is still lower than the lowest reading in the last recession, and in the face of massive stimulus…. just food for though.
On another note,
Mr Volker is finally coming out to light on what is actually plaguing our economy. Instead of wasting billions of dollars trying to make an unworkable system of consumption work, we should devote more resources to fixing the structure of the economy (elimination of debt, recognizing losses in the banking system instead of “extend & pretend”, and stop penalizing hard working Americans who followed financial prudence for a long time by saving). Sadly no country can have an economy that is made up of 75% consumption. All that does is create massive debt…kinda how the US economy looks right now. It’s common sense folks that’s all it is. You don’t need graphs and genius mathematicians to figure out if something just doesn’t make common sense.
Upcoming Key Macro Events
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy July 25, 2017 – July 26, 2017
- Brazil's lower house to decide on Temer's trial before Supreme Court (on 1 corruption charge) August 2, 2017
- Last Congressional Business day before amended August Recess August 11, 2017
- NAFTA negotiations begin. August 17, 2017
- TENT: Decision to proceed on suit regarding legality of Obamacare Gov't Subsidies August 21, 2017
- (TENT) Xiangshan military forum August 31, 2017
- (TENT) Catalan Referendum for independence August 31, 2017
- ECB monetary policy meeting September 7, 2017 – September 8, 2017 Expectations are for announcement winding down of stimulus.
- Deadline to determine status of Canadian Softwood tariffs announced on June 26 September 7, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* September 19, 2017 – September 20, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- German Bundestag elections September 24, 2017
- Preliminary duty ruling due on Boeing vs. Bombardier September 25, 2017
- Soft deadline for firm contours of Tax reform September 29, 2017
- (TENT) U.S. Gov't Spending Bill due September 30, 2017
- (TENT): EU Summit (end of Phase 1 of Brexit talks: soft deadline) October 1, 2017
- In Spain, Catalonia Referendum October 1, 2017 Spain, Catalonia Referendum
- CBO estimates US Gov't runs out of cash Early to mid-October October 2, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy October 31, 2017 – November 1, 2017
- China's Singles Day November 11, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* December 12, 2017 – December 13, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- (TENT) Italian National Elections January 1, 2018
- Chair Yellen's term ends (if not reappointed) February 3, 2018
- Fed: Yellen's term expires February 3, 2018
- Fed: Lockhart (Centrist to slighly dovish) retires? February 28, 2018
- D-day anniversary June 4, 2018 at 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm 1944
- Fed: Fischer's term expires June 12, 2018
- Austrian general election due by Sept 2018 September 1, 2018
- Draghi term at ECB ends October 31, 2019 ECB ends
- Term of Jean-Claude Juncker, Head the European commission, ends October 31, 2019