Retail sales number was gangbusters and was not expected from my viewpoint. But when an actual good number comes out these days, it alway comes out with a fly in the ointment (why can’t we get any “clean” good news?). The fly this time is the fact that the sample from which they derive the number has completely changed! It’s one of the first things you see on the report. In other words, this is not an apples to apples comparison from the prior months. Also, the fact that shopping organizations as well as polls pointed otherwise the whole month goes against this one report.
Here, Here, Here and Here
But well everyone is joyous over the “great” news…. I’m not buying it though. Let’s see December and January to confirm this new-found growth.
To not seem just focused on the bad news, consumer confidence also showed a rise that was higher than expected. It is cause for relief but I won’t go as far as this saving the holiday season. Unfortunately, this metric is STILL stuck in recessionary territory. To put it in perspective, today’s 73.4 is still lower than the lowest reading in the last recession, and in the face of massive stimulus…. just food for though.
On another note,
Mr Volker is finally coming out to light on what is actually plaguing our economy. Instead of wasting billions of dollars trying to make an unworkable system of consumption work, we should devote more resources to fixing the structure of the economy (elimination of debt, recognizing losses in the banking system instead of “extend & pretend”, and stop penalizing hard working Americans who followed financial prudence for a long time by saving). Sadly no country can have an economy that is made up of 75% consumption. All that does is create massive debt…kinda how the US economy looks right now. It’s common sense folks that’s all it is. You don’t need graphs and genius mathematicians to figure out if something just doesn’t make common sense.
Upcoming Key Macro Events
- Target for UK Triggering Article 50 March 29, 2017
- Senate Intelligence Committee Public Hearing March 30, 2017
- (TENT) Tarullo, Fed Governor set to resign April 5, 2017
- NATO foreign ministers meet April 5, 2017
- (TENT) Trump meets with Jinping at Mar-a-Lago April 6, 2017 Mar-a-Lago
- Confirmation vote for Neil Gorsuch April 7, 2017
- Eurogroup Summit (Greek bailout resolved?) April 7, 2017
- Target date to have AHCA passed the Senate April 7, 2017 at 5:00 pm – 6:00 pm
- Tillerson meets G7 foreign ministers in Italy April 10, 2017 Italy
- Target date for approval of ACA from both Houses April 14, 2017
- US: Budget resolution technically due. April 15, 2017
- (TENT): G7 Foreign Ministers meet in Tuscany April 15, 2017 Tuscany
- (TENT): Duterte visits Moscow (April or May) April 15, 2017
- Turkish Constitutional Referendum (Erdogan enhanced powers) April 16, 2017
- French Presidential election (1st round) April 23, 2017
- Spending bill deadline April 28, 2017 Republicans and Democrats agreed in late 2015 on a budget deal to increase some spending for two years to fund the government and avoid a shutdown and debt default. However Congress still needs to come up with a spending bill within those parameters by April 28
- Treasury Semiannual report on on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies April 28, 2017
- EU summit to discuss Brexit April 29, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy May 2, 2017 – May 3, 2017
- French presidential election (run off) May 6, 2017
- (TENT): G7 finance ministers meet in Puglia May 15, 2017 Puglia
- OPEC meeting in Vienna May 25, 2017 Vienna
- 43rd G7 Summit in Sicily, Italy May 25, 2017
- (TENT) Article 50 negotiations to begin June 1, 2017 Mrs. May’s letter will pave the way for Britain to leave by March 2019
- D-day anniversary June 4, 2017 at 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm 1944
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* June 13, 2017 – June 14, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- (TENT): Deadline for Greek debt payment (IMF review) July 1, 2017
- TENT Thaad deployed in South Korea?? July 1, 2017 South Korea??
- G20 Summit in Germany July 7, 2017 – July 8, 2017 Do Trump and Putin meet?
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy July 25, 2017 – July 26, 2017
- (TENT) Xiangshan military forum August 31, 2017
- (TENT) Catalan Referendum for independence August 31, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* September 19, 2017 – September 20, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- German Bundestag elections September 24, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy October 31, 2017 – November 1, 2017
- China's Singles Day November 11, 2017
- FOMC meets on interest rate policy* December 12, 2017 – December 13, 2017 Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.
- (TENT) Italian National Elections January 1, 2018
- Chair Yellen's term ends (if not reappointed) February 3, 2018
- Fed: Yellen's term expires February 3, 2018
- Fed: Lockhart (Centrist to slighly dovish) retires? February 28, 2018
- Fed: Fischer's term expires June 12, 2018
- Austrian general election due by Sept 2018 September 1, 2018