I posed this question a while back…. (link in Archives)
One thing I am confident in is that this process will not go in a straight line. All this tells me is the short dollar trade continues to be very very crowded. The global economy is not doing well despite stock markets rallying around the world. China continues to have a export dependent economy and that will not change for a while, however, current US policy will accelerate the process. There could come a point where there will be a confrontation between the US and China. Unfortunately China now has the upper hand on us. If push comes to shove, all China needs to do is begin dumping Treasuries.
The pen is indeed mightier than the sword.