Investment Letter for 7/20/09

Where we are: fresh off some rally highs
Dow Highs: 8848.15 (Up 35%)
S&P Highs: 951.13 (Up 41%)
Nasdaq Highs: 1909.29 (Up 50%)
My Thoughts: Rally seems like it still has some more steam and if it makes a clean break past 950-955 on strong volume, next resistance will be in the four figures (1050). My thesis still stands though that this is a bear market rally. My side sure is starting to get lonely, but my confidence has not wavered. From a fundamental standpoint, we as a nation have maxed out our credit. Home Equity and credit cards, which were the impetus behind our crazed consumption over the last 5 years, is gone. This whole mess can be reduced to a very simple story that took place when I was in college. I happened twice to me. I got into too much credit card debt…enough to where my minimum payments were not enough to debt the balance, in fact, my balance was getting bigger. I needed help. My dad came to the rescue. As long as we don’t take action and our consumer/national debt is not taken care of, we will continue to make the “minimum payment” (zombie banks; rolling debt over for the future) which will take us nowhere and will result in years of stagnation.

Investment Letter

Have a great week!!

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