RCS Investments Macro Outlook (Mid-2012)

Below is my updated thesis as of July 2012.  Categories are arranged by order of their respective effects on the macro picture.  For example, I believe that the global economy yields the strongest effect over the macro outlook.  U.S. monetary policy is second and so forth.

To keep tabs on how my thesis is progressing, check out my previous outlook.  For a list of all my past outlooks, click here.

I’ll have my market outlook up by the end of the week.

RCS Investments Macro Outlook (Begn-2012)

Below is my updated thesis as of January 2012.  Categories are in order of importance (i.e. the factors that lead the development of my thesis).  For example, I believe that the most important factor for the U.S. economy and financial markets in general is what direction our global economy takes; therefore, this topic is first.  Government Policy is the second most important factor towards shaping the trajectory of the US economy and financial markets; hence, it’s second on the list… and so on.

To keep tabs on how my thesis is progressing, check out my previous outlook.  For a list of all my past outlooks, click here.

Want to cut straight to the chase and read my thoughts on the markets?  Click here.

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Keeping An Eye Out: Halloween Edition, 2011

It’s important to account for factors, which may help unlock the macro puzzle in the months ahead.  In my bi-annual macro outlooks, I specifically include a sub-section named “Keeping An Eye Out”.  In it I list what I believe will be important ingredients in accurately forecasting the macro picture in the quarters ahead.  My latest outlook can be found here.   This research is designed as an addendum to my latest (Mid-year) outlook and therefore may seem a little choppy in its presentation.  I suggest reading it along with my latest outlook.  Factor cited here will contribute to my updated thesis due in the beginning of 2012.

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QE3: The Upcoming Wildcard

There are reasons to believe that market action over the past 2 weeks will have a negative effect on consumer and business confidence. Reports are reflecting reduced spending trends by business leaders due to concern over the economic outlook.  Serious potential hazards seem to be omnipresent, ranging from the Eurozone debt crisis to a China hard-landing to a double-dip recession in the US.  The risk of a global downturn is rising by the day.  Continued deterioration will most likely result in the Fed instituting yet another QE experiment.  This article is meant to speculate on when the Fed may initiate QE3 and the program’s subsequent effects.

RCS Investments Outlook (Mid-2011)

Below is my updated thesis as of mid-2011.  The main points are in order of importance (ie the factors that lead the development of my thesis).  For example, I believe that the most important factor for the US economy and financial markets currently stands in what our Federal Reserves decides to do with respect to QE3, therefore this topic is first.  The global economy is the second most important factor towards shaping the trajectory of the US economy and financial markets (hence it’s second on the list)… and so on.

Don’t like all the analysis and what to get straight to my market opinion?  (Click here)

To keep tabs on how my thesis is progressing, check out my previous outlooks.

Keeping An Eye Out: Mid April 2011

In an effort to keep tabs on my thesis and whether reality is matching my forecast, I periodically review my outlooks and compare them to recent news/events.  Please click (here) for my latest outlook for comparison purposes.

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Time to Be Cautious.

Hey all, I’m maintaining a “tumblrlog” called “Rational Capitalist Speculator” where I post quick thoughts and interesting stories on market and economic events.  It’s a good way of keeping tabs on the news given how quick things seem to be progressing at this point.

Check out some recent posts.

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Things are heating up in China.

The Saudis and VIX.

Copper.

Oil.

Bullish Earnings!

Things are Heating up in Saudi Arabia.

Polls point to Populism.

Time to Reduce Risk for a While.

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Have a great weekend!