Recent financial turbulence stemming from a deteriorating Eurozone has me speculating how the financial landscape could look like should the Euro dissolve. View full article »
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I like to speculate (don’t we all?) and come up with unique ideas on what the future may hold; a Peek into the Future you could say. I felt compelled to jot down some potential and intriguing medium to long-term trends taking hold regarding US government policy. But first, a quick recap. View full article »
There are reasons to believe that market action over the past 2 weeks will have a negative effect on consumer and business confidence. Reports are reflecting reduced spending trends by business leaders due to concern over the economic outlook. Serious potential hazards seem to be omnipresent, ranging from the Eurozone debt crisis to a China hard-landing to a double-dip recession in the US. The risk of a global downturn is rising by the day. Continued deterioration will most likely result in the Fed instituting yet another QE experiment. This article is meant to speculate on when the Fed may initiate QE3 and the program’s subsequent effects. View full article »
After numerous requests for my current portfolio breakdown, I have created a new section on the right of the front page displaying these items. Note that percentages under Bullish or Bearish Investments in “My Portfolio Breakdown” is made up of a combination of the below “Investment Ideas”.
This is my first update.
After numerous requests for my current portfolio breakdown, I have created a new section on the right of the front page displaying these items. Note that percentages under Bullish or Bearish Investments in “My Portfolio Breakdown” is made up of a combination of the below “Investment Ideas”.
UPDATE: Below is a breakdown of the portfolio in an effort to have historical record of the changes.
Note that previously, my financial forecasts were on the same page as my macroeconomic outlook (all the way at the bottom). I decided to separate them into their own post in case readers want to escape all the analysis and go straight to the point, what my opinions are on the markets.
Below is my updated thesis as of mid-2011. The main points are in order of importance (ie the factors that lead the development of my thesis). For example, I believe that the most important factor for the US economy and financial markets currently stands in what our Federal Reserves decides to do with respect to QE3, therefore this topic is first. The global economy is the second most important factor towards shaping the trajectory of the US economy and financial markets (hence it’s second on the list)… and so on.
Don’t like all the analysis and what to get straight to my market opinion? (Click here)
To keep tabs on how my thesis is progressing, check out my previous outlooks.
I have been a US Dollar bull (DXY) since October of last year. Since then, the dollar index has declined roughly 3%, however, I remain quite bullish on the currency. View full article »
While technical analysis shouldn’t be the sole factor in determining investment decisions in my view, it does provide clues as to how healthy the bull/bear market is as well as developing stories which could potentially impact the investment climate in the future. Here are some charts that I’ve been watching recently. (All –except one– charts courtesy of freestockcharts.com)
