Read my latest macro outlook for an in-depth view of how I formulated my market forecast. My previous financial market forecast can be found here. Please read the disclaimer to your right. Hope you enjoy the content.
Category: IV. Investment Portfolio
Below is my updated thesis as of January 2012. Categories are in order of importance (i.e. the factors that lead the development of my thesis). For example, I believe that the most important factor for the U.S. economy and financial markets in general is what direction our global economy takes; therefore, this topic is first. Government Policy is the second most important factor towards shaping the trajectory of the US economy and financial markets; hence, it’s second on the list… and so on.
To keep tabs on how my thesis is progressing, check out my previous outlook. For a list of all my past outlooks, click here.
Want to cut straight to the chase and read my thoughts on the markets? Click here.
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I have updated My Portfolio Breakdown and Investment Ideas. The previous update can be found here. I increased my Bearish Investment exposure as well as raised more cash from my Bullish Positions.
The S&P 500 is at resistance and I am taking this opportunity to further sell into strength. Note that I intend to keep some dry powder in case we indeed break through the 1,200 area to the upside, providing a better shorting opportunity. I understand that risk-markets may rally in the days ahead and am therefore preparing to implement some hedges, should the S&P 500 rally strongly past 1,200.
On the Bullish end, the U.S. remains in growth mode. Recent economic data has been coming in better than expected (albeit still very weak). The level of bearishness remains quite high and the market may already be discounting a mild recession. The sheer fact that we aren’t in one is bullish. News from the Eurozone has been encouraging as well. Merkel and Sarkozy have drawn a line in the sand in developing a comprehensive package to bailout banks and stem the contagion. If the package satisfies investors, markets would be in a prime position to rally (hence my recent affinity for hedges). The biggest headwind to global growth would be removed.
I have updated My Portfolio Breakdown and Investment Ideas. The previous update can be found here. I increased my Bearish Investment exposure as well as raised some cash from my Bullish Positions.
Conditions in the Eurozone remain accommodative for continued pairing in risk. I am also slighly increasing my short exposure due to a significant danger on a negative resolution resulting in adverse economic conditions at home. Given that the US economy is almost at stall speed, if not there already, a Eurozone blow up would be the straw that breaks the camels back in my opinion.
After numerous requests for my current portfolio breakdown, I have created a new section on the right of the front page displaying these items. Note that percentages under Bullish or Bearish Investments in “My Portfolio Breakdown” is made up of a combination of the below “Investment Ideas”.
This is my first update.
After numerous requests for my current portfolio breakdown, I have created a new section on the right of the front page displaying these items. Note that percentages under Bullish or Bearish Investments in “My Portfolio Breakdown” is made up of a combination of the below “Investment Ideas”.
UPDATE: Below is a breakdown of the portfolio in an effort to have historical record of the changes.
Note that previously, my financial forecasts were on the same page as my macroeconomic outlook (all the way at the bottom). I decided to separate them into their own post in case readers want to escape all the analysis and go straight to the point, what my opinions are on the markets.
Below is my updated thesis as of mid-2011. The main points are in order of importance (ie the factors that lead the development of my thesis). For example, I believe that the most important factor for the US economy and financial markets currently stands in what our Federal Reserves decides to do with respect to QE3, therefore this topic is first. The global economy is the second most important factor towards shaping the trajectory of the US economy and financial markets (hence it’s second on the list)… and so on.
Don’t like all the analysis and what to get straight to my market opinion? (Click here)
To keep tabs on how my thesis is progressing, check out my previous outlooks.
I have been a US Dollar bull (DXY) since October of last year. Since then, the dollar index has declined roughly 3%, however, I remain quite bullish on the currency. View full article »
