Keeping An Eye Out: Halloween Edition, 2011

It’s important to account for factors, which may help unlock the macro puzzle in the months ahead.  In my bi-annual macro outlooks, I specifically include a sub-section named “Keeping An Eye Out”.  In it I list what I believe will be important ingredients in accurately forecasting the macro picture in the quarters ahead.  My latest outlook can be found here.   This research is designed as an addendum to my latest (Mid-year) outlook and therefore may seem a little choppy in its presentation.  I suggest reading it along with my latest outlook.  Factor cited here will contribute to my updated thesis due in the beginning of 2012.

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Obama’s Great Power Play and 2012 Speculations

I like to speculate (don’t we all?) and come up with unique ideas on what the future may hold; a Peek into the Future you could say.  I felt compelled to jot down some potential and intriguing medium to long-term trends taking hold regarding US government policy.  But first, a quick recap.  

QE3: The Upcoming Wildcard

There are reasons to believe that market action over the past 2 weeks will have a negative effect on consumer and business confidence. Reports are reflecting reduced spending trends by business leaders due to concern over the economic outlook.  Serious potential hazards seem to be omnipresent, ranging from the Eurozone debt crisis to a China hard-landing to a double-dip recession in the US.  The risk of a global downturn is rising by the day.  Continued deterioration will most likely result in the Fed instituting yet another QE experiment.  This article is meant to speculate on when the Fed may initiate QE3 and the program’s subsequent effects.

Charts Charts Charts — What Are They Telling Us?

While technical analysis shouldn’t be the sole factor in determining investment decisions in my view, it does provide clues as to how healthy the bull/bear market is as well as developing stories which could potentially impact the investment climate in the future.  Here are some charts that I’ve been watching recently. (All –except one– charts courtesy of freestockcharts.com)

Keeping An Eye Out: Late April 2011

In an effort to keep tabs on my thesis and whether reality is matching my forecast, I periodically review my outlooks and compare them to recent news/events.  Please click (here) for my latest outlook for comparison purposes.

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–> Overall we continue to see growth in the Manufacturing sector on the back of a lower dollar (buoying emerging market demand) and steady domestic demand. 

Keeping An Eye Out: Mid April 2011

In an effort to keep tabs on my thesis and whether reality is matching my forecast, I periodically review my outlooks and compare them to recent news/events.  Please click (here) for my latest outlook for comparison purposes.

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It’s Time For Some Charts

While technical analysis shouldn’t be the sole factor in determining investment decisions in my view, it does provide clues as to how healthy the bull/bear market is.  Here are some charts that I’ve been watching recently. (All charts courtesy of freestockcharts.com)

Keeping an Eye Out: Late March 2011

If you check out my bi-annual outlook, there are sections named “Keeping an Eye Out”, which are signals that my thesis is coming to fruition or I’m full of hot air.  Below I cover some sectors of my outlook.

March Madness!

There was lots of news flow this week.  Here are some links from my tumblrlog (Rational Capitalist Spectulator).

Bull/Bear Recap

Keep an eye on those German elections!

Inflation in emerging markets still high.

No sh!t Sherlock.

The coming Bull.

What impact do oil prices have on Global GDP?

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If you check out my bi-annual outlook, there are sections named “Keeping an Eye Out”, which are signals that my thesis is coming to fruition or I’m full of hot air.  Below I cover some sectors of my outlook.

“Keeping An Eye Out”: October ’10

If you look at this article, it explains how I look for clues that my thesis is either playing out or I am full of hot air. The section is called “Keeping an Eye Out”.  You can find this section on every economic category in my Quarterly Outlook (Q2 being the most recent).  This section will be “Keeping an Eye Out” for clues that may be supporting or refuting my thesis.  To get the most out of this post, it’s a good idea to have it next to my outlook and read through both.  Note I will be posting bi-annual outlooks from now on focusing on January for my next outlook release.