Today’s world is highly interconnected. The inexorable drive towards globalization; exemplified by a proliferation of international trade agreements; exponential advances in technology and resulting productivity, epitomized by internet-on-demand and seamless interconnectivity in global supply chains, a few of many examples; and the consequences of such seismic long-term trends undeniably call for macroeconomic analysis to take on a newfound dominant role in analyzing the world of finance. Continue reading
UPDATE: April 10, 2013
On July 31, I posted an article expressing my continued cautiousness on the ambiguous macro outlook due uncertainty stemming from the upcoming September 12 German Constitutional Court’s decision (which ended up being Euro-friendly); nevertheless, I acknowledged that price action on the S&P 500 likely called for further appreciation and that small bets to the upside could be taken. Since then the S&P 500 has advanced roughly 9%, on the back of Mario Draghi’s promise to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro, which marked a seismic shift in investor sentiment. The “Draghi Put” was born.
(Data Source: AAII and NAAIM; Red –Bearish; Green–Bullish lines are 6-week moving averages not actual AAII data)
The sentiment picture remains mixed. Interestingly, individual investors (the avg. Joe) remain skeptical, while institutional investors and Wall Street firms are quite bullish on the outlook judging from the looks of the surveys above. Continue reading
Risk markets, particularly the S&P 500, have broken higher and the uptrend which began in June continues. It seems that markets are pricing in additional quantitative easing, which major central banks have recently made clear is coming. Continue reading
(Courtesy of Bloomberg.com)
For an in-depth view of my macro thesis please click here. My prior market forecast can be found here. Please read the disclaimer to your right. Thank you for your support.
Posted in Market Outlooks/Updates
Tagged 10-yr Treasuries, bear, bull, dollar, equities, europe, global economy, interest rates, monetary policy, QE, stocks
Below is my updated thesis as of July 2012. Categories are arranged by order of their respective effects on the macro picture. For example, I believe that the global economy yields the strongest effect over the macro outlook. U.S. monetary policy is second and so forth.
To keep tabs on how my thesis is progressing, check out my previous outlook. For a list of all my past outlooks, click here.
I’ll have my market outlook up by the end of the week. Continue reading
Posted in Economic Outlooks
Tagged China, confidence, consumer, consumption, europe, global economy, government, housing, Inflation, jobs, manufacturing, monetary policy, politics, service industry